Scale
Folding Paper to the Moon
Doubling thickness, on a linear axis and a log axis. The same numbers, two different stories.
42 folds until the model's stack passes the Moon, at 0.1 mm paper
Pick a body, then slide it around its orbit with the angle slider. One question to Mars, and one answer home. The model gives 8.7 min — or 42.0 min. Which one is the delay?
In 1676 Ole Rømer timed a moon of Jupiter coming out of Jupiter's shadow. The moon was clockwork. The timings were not. They ran early when Earth was near Jupiter. They ran late when Earth was far. Rømer said the shadow was on time and the light was late.
He put a number on it. By his figure, light needed about 22 minutes to cross Earth's orbit, end to end. Many people did not accept that light took any time at all. The argument took decades to close.
There is no single distance to cross. Pick a body below, then move it around its orbit with the angle slider. The one-way figure for Mars moves by nearly five times. Switch between One way and There and back and the big number doubles or halves at every angle, apart from rounding, so that factor stays the same.
Ask how long a message takes to reach Mars and you expect one number. The model does not have one. It has a band. The one-way figure runs from 4.4 min to 21.0 min. Quote a figure with no angle and it is loose by 4.82×.
That figure comes from the card marked Closest to farthest. Every body has its own. The model puts Venus at 6.23× and Neptune at 1.07×. Venus is the near planet and Neptune the far one. The near one swings far more.
Earth is the reason. The model measures from Earth's ring, not from the Sun. That ring has a radius of one astronomical unit. So the model takes the same 1.00 au off one end. Then it adds that same step to the other end, every time. Against Venus's ring of 0.72 au that step is most of the answer. Against Neptune's 30.07 au it is a rounding error.
The delay itself runs the other way. The model puts the Sun at 8.3 min. It puts Neptune between 4 h 2 min and 4 h 18 min. So in this model Earth's orbit is what makes the swing, and the target's distance decides how much it matters. The delay columns and the Swing column disagree about which body is interesting, though every figure in them comes from the same eight rows. The bars above draw both — position for the delay, length for the swing — and here is how to read the whole widget.
Two groups of buttons sit at the top. Jump straight to a case loads a whole setting at once. Who you are talking to picks the other body.
Under them is the slider How far around its orbit the other body is. It sets the angle at the Sun between Earth and that body. At 0° both sit on the same side of the Sun. At 180° the Sun sits between them. Pick the Sun and the slider switches off, because no angle moves it.
What the big number counts has two settings, One way and There and back. With One way picked, Signal delay and Distance now are one quantity in two units; There and back doubles the delay. Closest to farthest is the band: this body's two ends, and the factor between them.
The chart plots delay against the angle. One way is solid and there and back is dashed. Its up-and-down axis rescales for every body. So read the axis before you compare two screens. The curve is flattest at both ends. Its steepest point is not at 90°. It moves with the body, and for Mars the model puts it at 48.98°.
The bars under the chart are the comparison the chart cannot make. Each runs from a body's closest delay to its farthest. That axis is marked One-way delay, minutes (log scale). Its marks at 10 and 100 minutes are ten times apart; the labels at the two ends only show where the axis stops. Bar length is the swing and bar position is the distance. Venus draws the longest bar and Neptune one of the shortest. All of it is one division, and here it is.
The model is one division.
The rest is the work of getting a number for d. The model puts each body on a circle around the Sun. All the circles lie in one plane. Two bodies set apart by an angle θ at the Sun are a straight chord apart. The law of cosines gives that chord.
At θ = 0° the chord shrinks to the difference of the two radii. At θ = 180° it grows to their sum. So the slider can only reach |ap − aE| ≤ d ≤ ap + aE. The Sun is a circle of radius zero here, which is why θ cannot move it.
There and back is 2t, because the reply covers the same chord. A conversation of n turns is n · 2t. Thinking time is given a value of zero. Any other value would have to be picked and defended; zero keeps the count to travel alone.
Two things fall out before any body is picked. The swing, farthest delay over closest, is (ap + aE) ÷ |ap − aE|. It is largest when the two radii are close. The delay itself is set by ap alone, once it is much the larger. Beyond Venus, going outward, the two move opposite ways. One case counted by hand makes that easier to trust.
Take Mars at θ = 180° and follow one number down. The two radii add: 1.523 710 34 + 1.000 002 61 = 2.523 712 95 au. In metres that is 2.523 712 95 × 149 597 870 700, or 3.7754 × 10¹¹ m. Call it 377.5 million kilometres. Divide by c.
The card rounds that to 21.0 min. There and back doubles it to 2 518.7 s, or 42.0 min.
The same steps at θ = 0° subtract instead. 1.523 710 34 − 1.000 002 61 = 0.523 707 73 au, or 78.3 million kilometres. Dividing by c gives 261.3 s, which the card shows as 4.4 min.
Now divide the two one-way figures: 1 259.3 ÷ 261.3 = 4.82. That is the swing column, reached from two distances rather than read off the row. The same ratio holds in kilometres, in seconds and in astronomical units. The only step between those units is a division by a constant.
The card under How many times you each speak multiplies from there. The model puts eight turns at θ = 180° at 5 h 36 min. It puts the same eight turns at θ = 0° at 1 h 10 min. Nothing changed but where the two bodies were standing. All of it rests on three rules.
Drop any one of these and the figures stop meaning what they say.
There is no simulation. Every figure is the closed form worked once in double precision. So the largest error in the table is the geometry, not the arithmetic.
The two exact numbers. The speed of light in vacuum is 299 792 458 m/s. That is a defined value, not a measured one. The 17th CGPM fixed the metre by it in 1983. The astronomical unit is 149 597 870 700 m, adopted by the IAU in 2012. Neither carries an uncertainty, so 1 au = 499.004784 light-seconds is exact to the digits shown.
The radii. Each one is a semi-major axis, not a mean distance and not a current one. The values are the J2000 elements in JPL's Approximate Positions of the Planets. They are good for 1800–2050. The row used for Earth is the Earth–Moon barycentre. That offset sits far below the error the circles already carry. Circles are the large omission, and the next section prices them in minutes.
Eccentricity. Real orbits are ellipses, and circles narrow the band at both ends. From the same elements, Mars's perihelion is 1.3814 au and Earth's aphelion 1.0167 au. The difference is 0.3647 au, or 3.0 min. The two aphelia add to 2.6827 au, or 22.3 min. On this page those ends are 4.4 min and 21.0 min. The three minutes often quoted for Mars is not a figure the circles can produce. Only the ellipses reach it. The widget prints both bands under its table, so the gap stays visible.
One plane. Every orbit lies flat here. A tilt lifts one body off the flat plane. At the same angle measured along the plane, that lengthens the chord near θ = 0° and shortens it near θ = 180°, by under a second for Mars either way.
The Sun in the way. Near θ = 180° the Sun stands between the two bodies. The model still returns a delay, because it holds only geometry. It has no term for solar plasma along the path. It has nothing for signal strength, or for the weeks when commanding stops.
No clock. There is no date input. So the model cannot say when a line-up happens, or how long it lasts. It has no term for relay hops or for atmosphere. It has none for the light-time correction near the Sun. The width of Earth's own orbit is one distance people went out and measured, again and again: by parallax in 1672, by transits of Venus in 1761 and 1769 and again in 1874 and 1882, and by radar from 1961.
Press Sunlight reaching Earth and the card reads 8.3 min. Double it for the full width of Earth's orbit and the model gives 16.6 min. Rømer said about 22 minutes. He was long by roughly a third.
The size of that error is not the interesting part. Rømer had no trustworthy distance to the Sun to work with. He gave his answer as a time. 22 minutes is what that looks like. Turning his time into a speed needed that distance too.
Clear radar echoes from Venus arrived in 1961. Several groups timed them. Three of their papers are listed below. The method ran the same division the other way round. The speed was well known by then, so timing the echo gave the distance. Their figures settled the astronomical unit.
The constant in the arithmetic above is where that line ends. In 2012 the IAU stopped measuring the astronomical unit. It set the unit at 149 597 870 700 m exactly. The division that made Rømer's shadow run late is the one that fixes it.
The chord comes from the law of cosines. The test file gets the same distance from Cartesian coordinates. It takes a path of its own. The same file pins 1 au = 499.004784 light-seconds. A second test file pins every delay and swing in the table, all eight rows, to the exact strings it prints. How I check things.
Sources.
Scale
Doubling thickness, on a linear axis and a log axis. The same numbers, two different stories.
42 folds until the model's stack passes the Moon, at 0.1 mm paper
Scale
Path loss by band and wall material. With the same power and antenna gain the model puts 5 GHz below 2.4 GHz with no walls at all, and the wall decides which way the gap moves from there.
7.07 dB the model’s 5 GHz shortfall with no walls, at equal power and antenna gain
Chance
Move the door count and the number of doors the host opens. The model puts switching ahead of staying by the doors you did not pick, divided by the doors you could still swap to — two to one at three doors. Opening more doors raises that edge; adding doors without opening more lowers it.
0.667 the model's switch win rate at three doors